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The more likely outcome, however, is that events go in the opposite direction: rather than disintegrating in 2013, the euro zone moves sluggishly towards a more federal structure; and that in this Europe, a re-elected Mrs Merkel becomes still more dominant. A more integrated Europe would be a nightmare for America’s main European ally, Britain, and make Mrs Merkel a more powerful force on the world stage. China’s economy may be catching up with America’s; but the EU’s economy, even in its battered state, will remain larger than both.
President Obama may have hoped that 2013 could be a year spent mainly trying to reorganise his troubled realm. Yet the world beyond will give him no rest.