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Interest rates and bond prices
The change in interest rates has important implications for the
stockmarket prices of bonds, which pay a fixed rate of interest: fixed –
interest securities, of which the traditional gilt – edges securities issue fixed – interest bonds. It works like this.
Gilt – edges securities are a form of IOU ( I owe you ) or promissory
note issued by to government when it needs to borrow money. The
government undertakes to pay so much a year in interest to the people who put
up the money and who get the IOU in exchange. Normally the government
agrees to redeem the stock at some date in the future, but to illustrate the
interest rate mechanism it is easiest initially to take an irredeemable or
undated stock, which does not have to be repaid.
The original investors who lend the money to the government do not
have to hold on to the IOUs. They can sell them to other investors, who then
become entitled to receive the interest from the government. Suppose the
government needs to borrow money at a time when investors would expect an
11% yield on a gilt – edged security. It offers 11$ a year interest for every $
100 it borrows. The investor is prepared to pay $100 for the right to receive $
11 a year interest, because this represents an 11% return on his outlay.
Then suppose that interest rates rise to a point where an investor would
expect a 12,5% return if he bought a gilt-edged security. He will no longer pay
$100 for the right to $11 a year in income. He will only be prepared to pay a
price that gives him a 12,5% return on his outlay. The “right” price in this
case is $88, because if he pays only $88 to receive $11 a year in income, he is
getting a 12,5% return on his investment. So in the stockmarket the price of
the gilt-edged security that pays $11 a year interest will have to fall to $88
before investors are prepared to buy it. The original investor who paid $100
thus sees the value of his investment would have risen if interest rates had
fallen.
To summarize: If interest rates on securities go down, bond prices or
Prices for securities go up, and vise versa.